When things are uncertain, how do you react, what do you do?
You may just accept that it’s unpredictable, need to deal with what’s in front of you. Or you may have a well thought out plan, exactly for this occasion, indeed all occasions.
These tend to be the norm. Well, there’s another way & if you recognise it, you’re known as a Probabilist.
Imagine you’re stood in a square, blindfolded. Someone rolls in a ball & you have to guess where it is. Tough right? Well, that’s like dealing with uncertainty, might as well be blindfolded.
But then you ask them to roll in more balls. Now you can ask questions. Like, is the original to the left of right of the new balls? As more & more balls are rolled in, you can ask better questions & you can start to narrow down where the original is.
This is known as Probabilistic Thinking.
Instead of balls, think people, think resources. As you add more, you can ask better questions. Better questions mean better understanding. Now, what seemed totally uncertain, seems achievable.
So, the next time you are faced with uncertainty, add more, ask more, learn more.
As Jacob Bronowski, the eminent Mathematician said, “Knowledge is an unending adventure at the edge of uncertainty.” He’s probably right.